Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2015 Emmy Awards

(Photo by Paul Drinkwater/NBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images)

(Photo by Paul Drinkwater/NBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images)

It’s time once again for the Emmy Awards! While I don’t always agree with the nominations, I do always have fun watching the show. It’s a great way to celebrate some of the best achievements in television, and this was a fantastic year to celebrate.

Watching the show is even more fun when you can make your own picks and play along! So here are my choices for who I think will win each award and who I hope will win, too. Don’t forget to share your picks in the comments, and I’ll be live tweeting the evening’s festivities (from my comfy couch, of course) over at the NGN Twitter account starting around 6 p.m.

Outstanding Drama Series
My Pick: Mad Men
My Wish: Orange Is the New Black
My Thoughts: This feels like one of the most open categories of the night in terms of which show will win, but my gut says Mad Men’s impact on the television landscape will be honored with an Emmy for its final season. (My gut really says this award belongs to The Americans, but Emmy voters don’t care about my gut, apparently.) However, I would love to see the rise of complex, diverse female characters on television highlighted with an Orange Is the New Black win.

Outstanding Comedy Series:
My Pick and My Wish: Parks and Recreation
My Thoughts: I can’t pick against Parks and Rec when it’s my last chance to pick it…I just can’t. I wrote an entire post earlier this week about why this show is so deserving of this award, so I’ll sum up those feelings by saying sometimes nice people finish first, and I want to see that happen on Sunday night.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2014 Emmy Awards

How many Emmys will the final season of Breaking Bad win?

How many Emmys will the final season of Breaking Bad win?

For as frustrated as I was with the 2014 Emmy nominations when they were announced, I’m still excited to see TV’s best (with some notable exceptions) celebrated on Monday night. Although I don’t watch a lot of what’s considered “critically acclaimed” television, I’m still going to attempt to predict the show’s big winners. I’m also going to offer my thoughts on who I wish would win in these categories, too.

I’m not including the miniseries or TV movie categories because I haven’t seen any of those nominees. However, if you have thoughts on who will/should win those categories (as well as any others I’ve left out), let me know in the comments. And I’ll be live tweeting the evening’s festivities (including any red carpet coverage I can watch after work—why are these awards on a Monday?) over on the NGN Twitter account.

Outstanding Drama Series
My Pick and My Wish: Breaking Bad
My Thoughts: I will preface this by saying I think Breaking Bad and True Detective are going to split the series and actor categories. So if Bryan Cranston wins for acting, I think True Detective will take home this award. Ultimately, it’s a very close race, but I think Breaking Bad’s final season will be recognized to honor the show’s part in TV history. Years from now, Breaking Bad will be known as one of the pillars of this new Golden Age of television, so I think the Emmys will take advantage of having one last chance to honor it.

Outstanding Comedy Series
My Pick and My Wish: Orange Is the New Black
My Thoughts: I know the Emmys are often afraid to break away from the familiar, but the impact Orange Is the New Black has had on the television landscape shouldn’t be denied. I think this will be Emmy voters’ chance to recognize Netflix as a platform since I don’t think House of Cards will take home any awards this year. Not only would this be a way for the Emmys to make a statement that they’re not stuck in the past, it would be a way to recognize a show that’s unlike anything else on television.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2014 Oscars

Gravity will probably walk away with the most Oscars tonight, but I don't think Best Picture will be one of them.

Gravity will probably walk away with the most Oscars tonight, but I don’t think Best Picture will be one of them.

After months spent sitting in darkened theaters and on comfortable couches watching movie after movie, the film fanatics’ Super Bowl has arrived—it’s Oscar Sunday! More than any Oscars in recent memory, this one has a number of important categories that might still be too close for anyone to call ahead of time. From a Best Supporting Actress race for the ages to a Best Picture group without a clear favorite, this year’s ceremony is more difficult to predict than usual, but I think that’s going to make it even more fun to watch.

Below are my picks for all 24 categories, with analysis (and my sentimental favorites) for each of tonight’s major awards. Let me know in the comments what your ballot looks like, and don’t forget to join me on Twitter, where I’ll be dissecting everything from the red carpet fashions and Ellen’s sure-to-be-fabulous hosting skills to the night’s big winners and losers.

Picture
My Pick: 12 Years a Slave
My Wish: Her
My Thoughts: No movie I saw in this past year made me think or feel as deeply as Her, but I know it doesn’t stand a chance against the big boys in this category, despite its originality. In the three-horse race between 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, and American Hustle, I expect the Academy to choose the emotionally potent historical drama (a favorite genre of theirs over the years), and the choice is not without merit—12 Years a Slave was fearless and filled with strong performances.

Actor
My Pick: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
My Wish: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
My Thoughts: As much as I would love to see DiCaprio (my favorite actor since the age of 10) finally take home an Oscar for what many are calling his best work to date, I don’t think anyone is taking this Oscar from McConaughey. His physical transformation was astounding, but it was the emotional commitment he gave to this role that floored me. Also, his trademark charm helped make Dallas Buyers Club not just an emotionally compelling film but also a surprisingly warm and entertaining one.

Actress
My Pick: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
My Wish: Amy Adams (American Hustle)
My Thoughts: I still haven’t seen Blue Jasmine, but I’m not sure there’s been a performance more universally accepted as the best in its category this year. This award has been Blanchett’s since the film was released. As much as I’d love for Adams to finally get Oscar recognition in a year in which she served as the sexy but surprisingly vulnerable heart and soul of my favorite ensemble of the year (and turned in another excellent performance in Her), I’m sad to say it’s just not going to happen this year.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2014 SAG Awards

AMERICAN-HUSTLE-poster2

Will American Hustle take home the SAG award for best ensemble?

Award season continues tonight with the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which air at 8 p.m. on TNT and TBS. I love actors—I love the way just the smallest change in their expression, just the slightest shift in their body language, or just the hint of a tremor in their voice can make us feel things that go beyond the pages of script.

Actors bring life to words, and as someone who lives in a world of words, I have always admired the courage and dedication it takes to make sentences on a page become a physical reality. So I love the fact that there’s an award ceremony every year where actors gather together to honor one another, to give the most deserving among them awards that mean so much because they were given by a group of respected peers.

However, I will admit that this year’s crop of nominees has left me less excited than usual about the ceremony. No love for Amy Adams, Christian Bale, or Joaquin Phoenix? Why do I have to suffer another year of Parks and Recreation being snubbed for even a nomination for best comedic TV ensemble? And where the heck is Amy Poehler’s name on the list of nominees?

I have a prior family commitment that will be keeping me from watching/live tweeting the red carpet and start of the ceremony, but I’ll join the party on Twitter as soon as I can tonight. Until then, here are my predictions for tonight’s big winners. Let me know in the comments who you think will be victorious this evening!

FILM

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler)
My Pick: Matthew McConaughey. Dern could be honored for his storied career, but I think McConaughey’s fellow actors will appreciate his physical transformation and emotional commitment to this role. Does this mean we’ll be hearing “All right, all right, all right…” on Oscar night?

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
My Pick: Cate Blanchett. Another award ceremony, another victory on Blanchett’s road to the Oscars.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2014 Golden Globes

golden globes

The Golden Globes are my favorite award show. Yes, I love seeing television get its day in the sun with the Emmys; I love the way the SAG Awards honor my favorite thing about most films (the performances); and you can’t beat the Oscars when it comes to glamour and style. But the Golden Globes are different—the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) brings the worlds of television and film together, and it does so with a genuine sense of humor.

There’s something uniquely fun about the Golden Globes. The celebrities are a little more relaxed. The nominees (and winners) are often a little more random and harder to predict than other award shows. And you can’t mention “fun” and “Golden Globes” in the same sentence without mentioning this year’s returning pair of hilarious hosts: Amy Poehler and Tina Fey.

I’m so excited to watch one of my favorite times of year—award season—kick off tonight. I’m excited to see all of the gorgeous (and maybe not-so-gorgeous) looks on the red carpet. I’m excited to see what smart and memorable material Poehler and Fey have in store for us this year. I’m excited to watch many of my favorites from this year in film and television have their names read along with all the other great nominees. And I’m excited to celebrate film and television, two mediums that I love differently but equally and continue to love more each year.

Before tonight’s ceremony, (which begins at 8 p.m. on NBC), I wanted to share my predictions, which should always be taken with a grain of salt because I often pick with my heart instead of my head when it comes to these things. Let me know in the comments who you think will win, who you think should win, and who you’re most excited to see tonight. And join me on Twitter around 6 p.m. when I kick off my annual Golden Globes live-tweeting coverage!

FILM NOMINEES

Best Motion Picture: Drama
12 Years A Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Philomena
Rush
My Pick: 12 Years A Slave. While Gravity’s technical brilliance is hard to ignore, I think the emotional impact and sheer nerve of 12 Years A Slave is even harder to overlook.

Best Motion Picture: Comedy Or Musical
American Hustle
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
My Pick: American Hustle. With a cast full of talented stars used to their fullest potential in a smart, entertaining period piece (which feels weird to say since the 1970s weren’t that long ago), I think American Hustle is the kind of film the HFPA often gravitates towards.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture: Drama
Chiwetel Ejifor (12 Years A Slave)
Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Robert Redford (All is Lost)
My Pick: Chiwetel Ejifor. While Redford could take home the award because of his pedigree (and brilliant work), I still think Ejifor’s work as the heart and soul of the year’s most brutally emotional film will take precedence over the HFPA’s usual bias towards bigger names.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture: Drama
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
My Pick: Cate Blanchett. While I would give this award to Bullock, I have heard nothing but ecstatic raves for Blanchett’s work, and she seems like a lock in this category filled with great actresses who gave great performances this year.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture: Comedy Or Musical
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
My Pick: Amy Adams. Meryl or Amy? In the battle of Hollywood royalty versus the next generation of great actresses, I think Adams is going to come out on top for her standout performance in an ensemble filled with today’s most compelling actors. It’s about time her chameleon-like ability to play nearly every kind of role was rewarded.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture: Comedy Or Musical
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
My Pick: Leonardo DiCaprio. As a DiCaprio fangirl since the age of 9, nothing makes me happier than the critical acclaim his work in Wolf of Wall Street is getting, and if anyone deserves some award-season love after so many years of being overlooked, it’s him.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2013 Emmy Awards

Confession time: I don’t watch a lot of “critically acclaimed” television. My tastes aren’t exactly aligned with any years’ crop of Emmy nominees, but I was especially disappointed that some of my favorite shows and actors were overlooked this time around. However, I’m still going to attempt to predict how tomorrow night’s Emmy ceremony is going to go. I’m skipping the miniseries/TV movie categories because I have absolutely no knowledge of those nominees, but I hope my other picks (and the reasons behind them) might inspire you to fill out an Emmy ballot of your own.

DRAMA SERIES:
Breaking Bad, AMC
Downton Abbey, PBS
Homeland, Showtime
Game of Thrones, HBO
House of Cards, Netflix
Mad Men, AMC
My Pick: Breaking Bad. I could see House of Cards possibly playing the spoiler here (to call attention to the success Netflix is having with its original programming), but I really think the buzz around Breaking Bad is too high right now—and has been for the last year or so—for it to go unrecognized. I can’t believe it’s never won before, so I think its time has come.

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey, PBS
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad, AMC
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom, HBO
Jon Hamm, Mad Men, AMC
Damian Lewis, Homeland, Showtime
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards, Netflix
My Pick: Bryan Cranston. The Emmys like to stick with what they know, and what they know is that Cranston is a force to be reckoned with. Spacey shouldn’t be counted out here, but I can’t see this award going to someone other than Cranston until Breaking Bad is done (which means, yes, I am already picking him to win next year’s Emmy, too).

LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Connie Britton, Nashville, ABC
Claire Danes, Homeland, Showtime
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey, PBS
Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel, A&E
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men, AMC
Kerry Washington, Scandal, ABC
Robin Wright, House of Cards, Netflix
My Pick: Kerry Washington. This is a diverse category of fantastic leading ladies, but Washington has the kind of star power that Emmy voters love to call attention to. She’s the center of one of the most talked-about shows on television, and she turns in consistently great work, even with increasingly crazy storylines.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire, HBO
Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad, AMC
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad, AMC
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey, PBS
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones, HBO
Mandy Patinkin, Homeland, Showtime
My Pick: Mandy Patinkin. Homeland is probably going to win at least one Emmy tomorrow night, and I think it’s going to go to the man who was overlooked for any recognition last season. Patinkin’s restrained performance grounds a show that is known for its emotional breakdowns, hysterics, and crazy plot twists. I don’t know much about the character dynamics on Homeland, but it seems to me that Patinkin’s Saul is the steadfast glue holding the show together when it’s at its craziest.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad, AMC
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey, PBS
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones, HBO
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife, CBS
Morena Baccarin, Homeland, Showtime
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men, AMC
My Pick: Anna Gunn. If I know nothing else about Breaking Bad, I know that Anna Gunn has turned in a performance that’s controversial, powerful, and polarizing. But there’s no denying that this woman has talent and has held her own opposite her commanding costars. Plus, she wrote this fantastic New York Times piece about her character, and that kind of love for the role she plays earns her big points in my book.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2013 Critics’ Choice Television Awards

A week from today, television’s best will be in the spotlight as the fabulous Retta hosts the 2013 Critics’ Choice Television Awards. I was incredibly pleased with the nominees chosen by the Broadcast Television Journalists Association (BTJA); I feel like they’re a strong representation of what has been an outstanding year for television.

As is usually the case in the world of television awards, who I’d like to see win is often different from who I think will win—although that isn’t always the case. My predictions for these awards will include both the actor or show I feel is most deserving and the one I think the critics will most likely honor. However, I know practically nothing about the nominees in the “Mini-Series or TV Movie” categories, so I’m just going to pick who I think will actually win those after doing some intense research (aka going on Google for a couple of hours to read reviews from critics I trust).

Without further ado, here are my predictions!

BEST COMEDY SERIES
• The Big Bang Theory – CBS
• Louie – FX
• The Middle – ABC
• New Girl – FOX
• Parks and Recreation – NBC
• Veep – HBO
Should Win: As much as I love Parks and Rec, New Girl was both the funniest and most emotionally honest comedy on television this year.
Will Win: Louie is loved by critics and fans alike, and I don’t see it losing to any network comedy. Veep is the only show I could see giving it a run for its money as far as awards go.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
• Don Cheadle (House of Lies) – Showtime
• Louis C.K. (Louie) – FX
• Jake Johnson (New Girl) – FOX
• Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory) – CBS
• Adam Scott (Parks and Recreation) – NBC
• Jeremy Sisto (Suburgatory) – ABC
Should Win: Jake Johnson was one of the best actors on television this year in any genre. Whether he was dancing to Taylor Swift, delivering an emotional eulogy for his father, or kissing Jess “like a man” on more than one occasion, Nick Miller surprised me as a viewer every week, and thanks to Johnson’s charming, hilarious, and surprisingly sexy screen presence, it was always a pleasant surprise.
Will Win: Louis C.K. is hilarious, and he’s a critical darling. While this category is stocked with some great names (Adam Scott’s inclusion makes me especially thrilled), no one’s beating him.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES 
• Laura Dern (Enlightened) – HBO
• Zooey Deschanel (New Girl) – FOX
• Lena Dunham (Girls) – HBO
• Sutton Foster (Bunheads) – ABC Family
• Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) – HBO
• Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation) – NBC
Should Win/Will Win: I’ve been burned with this prediction many times before, but I think it’s finally Amy Poehler’s time to win. Parks and Rec is loved by so many critics, and it wouldn’t be anywhere near as entertaining without Poehler’s sunny and smart presence at the center of it. This was a big year for Leslie Knope—she became a city councilwoman, got engaged, and got married—and Poehler made us laugh, cry, and smile along with this character through all of it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
• Max Greenfield (New Girl) – FOX
• Simon Helberg (The Big Bang Theory) – CBS
• Alex Karpovsky (Girls) – HBO
• Adam Pally (Happy Endings) – ABC
• Chris Pratt (Parks and Recreation) – NBC
• Danny Pudi (Community) – NBC
Should Win/Will Win: There’s no character on TV right now like Schmidt, and I really think critics are going to find some way to reward New Girl for its excellent sophomore season. These two factors should combine to give Max Greenfield some well-deserved love from the BTJA. Greenfield’s talent for playing the world’s most lovable douchebag has made him a critical darling even when the rest of the cast was struggling to gain recognition. While I think he had less to do this season than last season, his unique combination of quirky overconfidence and genuine vulnerability were still put to excellent use.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY 
• Carly Chaikin (Suburgatory) – ABC
• Kaley Cuoco (The Big Bang Theory) – CBS
• Sarah Hyland (Modern Family) – ABC
• Melissa Rauch (The Big Bang Theory) – CBS
• Eden Sher (The Middle) – ABC
• Casey Wilson (Happy Endings) – ABC
Should Win: Sarah Hyland has always been an underappreciated force to be reckoned with on Modern Family, and I’m so happy to see her getting the recognition she deserves.
Will Win: It wouldn’t be a TV award show without The Big Bang Theory winning something, so my money’s on the charming Kaley Cuoco to take home the show’s obligatory award.

BEST GUEST PERFORMER IN A COMEDY SERIES 
• Melissa Leo (Louie) – FX
• David Lynch (Louie) – FX
• Bob Newhart (The Big Bang Theory) – CBS
• Patton Oswalt (Parks and Recreation) – NBC
• Molly Shannon (Enlightened) – HBO
• Patrick Wilson (Girls) – HBO
Should Win/Will Win: Molly Shannon is always a treat whenever she shows up onscreen—and I think most critics would agree with me. ‘

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2013 Oscars

kristen bell so excited

It’s finally here! After months of going to see movie after movie (my credit card will thank me when award season is finally over), analyzing critical reactions, and watching every award show possible leading up to tonight, it’s finally time for the culmination of the 2013 movie awards season: The Oscars.

I’ve been watching the Oscars since I was a little kid. I remember Ben Affleck and Matt Damon winning and thinking they were my new Hollywood crushes (some things don’t change). I remember Halle Berry’s very emotional (and very long) acceptance speech for Best Actress. I remember that fantastic feeling you get when the first time a movie you actually saw in theaters wins Best Picture.

I’m a movie fanatic—always have been, always will be. Movies hold a special spot in my heart; there’s nothing quite like sitting in a theater with a bunch of strangers, experiencing the same emotional highs and lows but knowing that this one film can touch each person in this theater in a unique way. I know more about film history than I do about American history; I can probably name more Best Picture winners than I can name presidents. And I can’t wait to watch history be made again tonight.

Enough waxing poetic about my lifelong love affair with the silver screen. Here are my picks for who’s going to be taking home an Oscar tonight:

Picture: Argo
After the way it’s swept the rest of the major awards so far, I can’t see anything beating this film—and that’s more than okay with me. Although I thought Silver Linings Playbook was a better film overall, I wouldn’t be disappointed in this slightest to see Ben Affleck and the rest of the team behind this filmmaking tour de force win for this inspiring adrenaline rush of a film.

Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
No one else stands a chance, as sad as that makes me as a fan of both Hugh Jackman and Bradley Cooper’s great performances. This has been Day-Lewis’s Oscar since the day Lincoln opened in theaters.

Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
I just saw this film for the third time yesterday, and every time I see it I walk away even more impressed with the level of maturity, depth, and detail Lawrence put into her performance. She is this movie’s igniting force, the spark that intensifies the performances of everyone around her.

Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
De Niro delivered his best work in years in this film, and I think he’s going to get recognized for that. His performance in this film is nuanced, surprisingly subtle, and grounded in a warmth that infuses the film with the sense of deep, familial love that makes it so beautiful.

Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
Like Day-Lewis, this has been Hathaway’s Oscar from the start, with the first trailer that was released for this film. And she more than earned it with her incredible physical dedication to the role and her gut-wrenching performance.

Director: David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
In what should have been Ben Affleck’s category to lose, I’m picking the man who I felt got the most out of his actors and crafted the most heartfelt, quietly powerful movie of the year. In order for Silver Linings Playbook to resonate so strongly with audiences, it needed a director who could bring truly great performances out of all of his cast, and Russell certainly accomplished that—with four acting nominations for his cast to testify to that fact.

And here’s what the rest of my ballot looks like:

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2013 Screen Actors Guild Awards

Tonight marks another important stop on the road to the 2013 Oscars: the SAG awards. This is one of my favorite award shows of the year because I love actors; I love acting. Everyone has their criteria for judging the merits of a film: Some make cinematography or direction their first priority; others care most about the merits of the script. For me, I’m always drawn to performances. The actors—the way their voices break, the way their eyes light up or go dark, the way they are able to create chemistry just by standing next to each other—are the ones who draw me into a film and make me care about it. So naturally, I love the award show that is all about my favorite aspect of moviemaking.

Just like I did for the Golden Globes, I’ll be live tweeting the red carpet and the ceremony starting at 6 p.m. on the NGN Twitter. And I’ll have a recap of the ceremony along with my best and worst dressed stars tomorrow.

Now it’s time to make some picks for tonight’s winners. (Hopefully I’ll be a little bit more accurate than I was for the Golden Globes.)

FILM

Male Actor, Lead
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Denzel Washington, Flight

My Pick: Daniel Day-Lewis. DDL’s triumphant march to Oscar glory will continue tonight. There’s almost no doubt about that.

Male Actor, Supporting
Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

My Pick: Robert De Niro. While I think the award could definitely go to Tommy Lee Jones, I think De Niro is going to be rewarded by his peers for his nuanced, beautiful return to form as a father struggling with his son’s bipolar disorder and his own demons. His performance was heartfelt, layered, and very honest, which is something I think his fellow actors will appreciate more than any other voting body.

Female Actor, Lead
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

My Pick: Jennifer Lawrence. This is the race I’m most torn about. While Jessica Chastain has huge amounts of critical acclaim and a lot of respect from her peers on her side, I just think Lawrence’s performance is too emotionally gripping to ignore. What she was able to do with the character of Tiffany—the maturity, the powerful stillness, the believable but intense range of emotions, the total vulnerability, the surprising humor—is acting at its finest. In Silver Linings Playbook, she did what great actors are supposed to do; she made me feel for this woman in a way that made me forget she was a fictional character.

Female Actor, Supporting
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

My Pick: Anne Hathaway. Her dedication to this role is something no one can deny, and her passion for making Fantine feel like a real woman rather than just a tragic symbol of the downtrodden gave her performance a raw edge that has become many viewers’ lasting impression of Les Mis. Hathaway—like Daniel Day-Lewis—is on her way to well-deserved Oscar glory this year, and tonight’s results will almost surely confirm that.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2013 Golden Globes (Film)

On Friday, I made my picks for the Golden Globe winners in each television category. Now, I turn my attention to the world of film. When I was in high school, I dreamed of being a film critic, so I began trying to see as many critical darlings as I could. That passion for movies and the awards that are given to them has never faded, even though the film critic dream ended a long time ago.

So without further ado, I present the movies I think will be big winners at the Globes.

Best Picture, Drama:
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

My Pick: Zero Dark Thirty. Though Lincoln now has all of the buzz going into the Oscars, the votes for the Globes were cast before the Oscar nominations came out. At that time, the buzz belonged to Zero Dark Thirty—and for good reason. It’s one of those movies that shines a light on our current world in a fearless way, and it’s done so with great critical and audience acclaim.

Best Picture, Musical or Comedy:
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Misérables
Moonrise Kindgom
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Silver Linings Playbook

My Pick: Les Misérables. This category is one of the hardest for me to choose a winner for because both Les Misérables and Silver Linings Playbook are so good in such different ways. Ultimately, though, I think the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will be drawn to the spectacle and power of Les Misérables and reward all of the work that went into making this musical translate so well to the big screen.

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