Will American Hustle take home the SAG award for best ensemble?

Award season continues tonight with the Screen Actors Guild Awards, which air at 8 p.m. on TNT and TBS. I love actors—I love the way just the smallest change in their expression, just the slightest shift in their body language, or just the hint of a tremor in their voice can make us feel things that go beyond the pages of script.

Actors bring life to words, and as someone who lives in a world of words, I have always admired the courage and dedication it takes to make sentences on a page become a physical reality. So I love the fact that there’s an award ceremony every year where actors gather together to honor one another, to give the most deserving among them awards that mean so much because they were given by a group of respected peers.

However, I will admit that this year’s crop of nominees has left me less excited than usual about the ceremony. No love for Amy Adams, Christian Bale, or Joaquin Phoenix? Why do I have to suffer another year of Parks and Recreation being snubbed for even a nomination for best comedic TV ensemble? And where the heck is Amy Poehler’s name on the list of nominees?

I have a prior family commitment that will be keeping me from watching/live tweeting the red carpet and start of the ceremony, but I’ll join the party on Twitter as soon as I can tonight. Until then, here are my predictions for tonight’s big winners. Let me know in the comments who you think will be victorious this evening!

FILM

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler)
My Pick: Matthew McConaughey. Dern could be honored for his storied career, but I think McConaughey’s fellow actors will appreciate his physical transformation and emotional commitment to this role. Does this mean we’ll be hearing “All right, all right, all right…” on Oscar night?

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
My Pick: Cate Blanchett. Another award ceremony, another victory on Blanchett’s road to the Oscars.

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Tonight marks another important stop on the road to the 2013 Oscars: the SAG awards. This is one of my favorite award shows of the year because I love actors; I love acting. Everyone has their criteria for judging the merits of a film: Some make cinematography or direction their first priority; others care most about the merits of the script. For me, I’m always drawn to performances. The actors—the way their voices break, the way their eyes light up or go dark, the way they are able to create chemistry just by standing next to each other—are the ones who draw me into a film and make me care about it. So naturally, I love the award show that is all about my favorite aspect of moviemaking.

Just like I did for the Golden Globes, I’ll be live tweeting the red carpet and the ceremony starting at 6 p.m. on the NGN Twitter. And I’ll have a recap of the ceremony along with my best and worst dressed stars tomorrow.

Now it’s time to make some picks for tonight’s winners. (Hopefully I’ll be a little bit more accurate than I was for the Golden Globes.)

FILM

Male Actor, Lead
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Denzel Washington, Flight

My Pick: Daniel Day-Lewis. DDL’s triumphant march to Oscar glory will continue tonight. There’s almost no doubt about that.

Male Actor, Supporting
Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

My Pick: Robert De Niro. While I think the award could definitely go to Tommy Lee Jones, I think De Niro is going to be rewarded by his peers for his nuanced, beautiful return to form as a father struggling with his son’s bipolar disorder and his own demons. His performance was heartfelt, layered, and very honest, which is something I think his fellow actors will appreciate more than any other voting body.

Female Actor, Lead
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

My Pick: Jennifer Lawrence. This is the race I’m most torn about. While Jessica Chastain has huge amounts of critical acclaim and a lot of respect from her peers on her side, I just think Lawrence’s performance is too emotionally gripping to ignore. What she was able to do with the character of Tiffany—the maturity, the powerful stillness, the believable but intense range of emotions, the total vulnerability, the surprising humor—is acting at its finest. In Silver Linings Playbook, she did what great actors are supposed to do; she made me feel for this woman in a way that made me forget she was a fictional character.

Female Actor, Supporting
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

My Pick: Anne Hathaway. Her dedication to this role is something no one can deny, and her passion for making Fantine feel like a real woman rather than just a tragic symbol of the downtrodden gave her performance a raw edge that has become many viewers’ lasting impression of Les Mis. Hathaway—like Daniel Day-Lewis—is on her way to well-deserved Oscar glory this year, and tonight’s results will almost surely confirm that.

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