Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2019 Emmy Awards

62nd Primetime Emmy Awards - Audience

(Photo by Paul Drinkwater/NBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images)

My relationship with the Emmys has always been a volatile one. It’s resulted in shoes thrown at the television (when Keri Russell didn’t win for The Americans last year) but also in tears of joy from my couch (when Matthew Rhys did win last year—and thanked Keri Russell in the cutest way possible). And so I continue to tune in year after year, ready for the emotional roller coaster that comes with caring way too much about whether or not your favorites go home with a shiny gold statue.

With some awards shows, I try to be objective with my predictions, but that never works with the Emmys. I care too much about the shows I love, and I can never separate my head from my heart. As such, my predictions might not be the best guide for your own Emmy pools or parties, but they offer a look into the shows and performances that captured my heart in the last year. And since my job and my life have gotten busier recently (yet again—can’t things ever slow down?!), I hope this will provide you all with a nice little snapshot of my thoughts on this past year of television since it’s been hard for me to write about my thoughts and (MANY) feelings as often as I’d like around these parts.

Without further ado, let’s make some predictions (and talk endlessly about our favorites)! I won’t cover every category—especially because in some categories (like TV Movie), I haven’t seen a single nominee. But I have a horse in most of the races this year, and I can’t wait to share my feelings with you about why I’ll be rooting for them on Sunday night. And if you want even more insight (and emotional, all-caps reactions), I’ll be live tweeting throughout the evening starting with the red carpet at 6 p.m. EST. Come for the analysis—stay for the rabid fangirling over how gorgeous the cast of Game of Thrones is sure to look.

Outstanding Drama Series
My Pick: Game of Thrones
My Thoughts: No matter what your opinion was concerning the final season of Game of Thrones (For the record: My opinion is a cross between a shrug of the shoulders and a fit of rage depending on what storyline we’re talking about), it was impossible to top the show in terms of its production value, cultural impact, and buzz. With a plethora of nominations and a reputation for Emmy glory (even for less than stellar seasons), I think this is one of the few safe bets of the night. And despite my misgivings about the final season as a whole, I think parts of it (namely, “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms”) were among the best things television gave us in the last year. I’m not sure a TV drama will ever again draw the kind of universal attention and discussion that Game of Thrones did, and I can’t see Emmy voters passing up one last chance to honor its cultural impact.

Outstanding Comedy Series
My Pick: Veep
My Thoughts: This is one category where I can separate my hopes from my sense of reality, and that’s because I’m going to console myself with the idea that The Good Place will have a better shot to win a “body of work” Emmy for its next—and last—season. This time, I think Veep is going to take home one last Emmy in a category stacked with brilliance. I wouldn’t mind any of the nominees winning—and I hope the love is spread around in the writing and directing categories—but I’ve heard nothing but praise for Veep’s final season (I’m still many seasons behind in my quest to watch all of it), so I think Emmy voters will want to send it out on a winning note.

Outstanding Limited Series
My Pick: When They See Us
My Thoughts: This is another powerhouse of a category, but nothing I watched on TV this year has stayed with me in a visceral way like When They See Us. The power of its performances, the clarity of its writing, the immersive and unflinching style of its direction—every part of it was operating at the highest level to produce something masterful. It’s a showcase of this particular medium at its very best, with each episode varying just enough in focus and tone to present a comprehensive look at the lives of human beings caught up in the horrors of the American criminal justice system. The humanity on display in this limited series was almost too painful to process at points, and that is exactly why it deserves this recognition.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2019 Oscars

Oscars

Source: MentalFloss.com

I love the Oscars. I know they don’t always award—or even nominate—the right people and films. I know they have plenty of problems with diversity and inclusion and accepting new visions of what filmmaking can be. I know this year’s race and ceremony in particular have been a hot mess of controversy, bad decisions, and backpedaling.

So why is Oscar Sunday still one of my favorite days of the year?

It’s simple: I love movies, and Oscar Sunday is a day people set aside to celebrate movies. It’s a day to unabashedly and unashamedly care about movies. It’s a day to proudly be passionate about film. And for me, it’s even more special this year because this year rekindled my passion for film in a way I wasn’t expecting and yet in a way I desperately needed.

With the end of many of the TV shows that had been part of my life for so long, I found myself lost as a fangirl without a home. But then movies came back into my life, and they helped me find a part of myself that I lost when my enthusiasm for film waned in my 20s. I saw so many movies this year—including all but one of the year’s Best Picture nominees. (Sorry, Vice.) And in those hours spent in darkened theaters and on my couch, I remembered what it feels like to become completely transported and transformed by a movie. It’s unlike any other media experience you can have, and it brought the purest kind of joy into my life when I needed it most.

So no matter how mad I may be that Bradley Cooper was snubbed for a Best Director nomination or how annoyed I may be with all the changes—and then weird retractions of changes—to the ceremony itself, I haven’t been this excited about the Oscars since I was 17 years old and still dreaming of being a film critic. I’m more educated about these races than I’ve ever been. (Thanks in no small part to Collider’s amazing For Your Consideration videos, which I have watched religiously for months and have come to see as true bright spots of movie nerd enthusiasm in my life.) And I can’t wait to share my predictions with you this year because they come from a place of deep analysis and also genuine fangirl love, which is what NGN is all about.

I hope you share your picks for the night’s winners in the comments because I’m ready to start talking more about film around here! And as always, I’ll be live tweeting all the night’s festivities starting with the red carpet at 6 p.m. EST, so follow along on Twitter if you want to see my emotional breakdown over Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga singing “Shallow” in real time.

Without further ado, here are my picks for the winners in every category tonight (I tried to keep my thoughts short since I also added analysis for every category this year—not just the big ones)!

Picture
My Pick: Roma
My Thoughts: This is the most wide-open Best Picture race in years, and I think at least 5 of the 8 nominees have realistic chances to take home the win, especially with the preferential ballot system (which awards films that many people like rather than films that a smaller group love). Although my heart belongs to A Star Is Born, I’d love to see Black Panther break new ground with a win, and there’s plenty of support behind Green Book to make it possibly even the favorite at this point, I still think Roma is going to take home the night’s big prize. Roma is a gorgeous film that affirms the universality of themes like family, trauma, loss, and the strength of women while being stylistically in a class of its own. A win for Roma wouldn’t just be a win for a beautiful, unique movie, it would send a message about the stories we have in common being more important than the things that people want to use to divide us.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2019 Golden Globes

golden globes

It’s been a while (five years, to be exact!) since I’ve predicted the Golden Globes around these parts, but I’m back and ready to talk about my favorite awards show! The Golden Globes are the kickoff party for awards season—one of my favorite times of the year. They’re typically more fun than your average award show, feature memorable speeches, and celebrate both TV and film—the two great loves of my life. They’re also famously full of surprises and are notoriously hard to predict, which is exciting for the fangirl in me but challenging for the perfectionist who always wants to get as many picks right as possible.

Despite how hard it is to play the Golden Globes guessing game, I couldn’t resist making my predictions public this year when I have so many horses in this race. From the last chance for one of my favorite television shows of all time to the movie I loved this year more than any other, I haven’t been this emotionally invested in the entirety of an awards show in a long time. So if you want to see the multiple emotional meltdowns that are sure to occur in real time, I’ll be live tweeting the festivities starting at 6 p.m. EST tonight.

Until then, here are my predictions for what’s sure to be another memorable and surprising Golden Globes ceremony. Don’t forget to share your picks in the comments!

FILM
Best Motion Picture: Drama
My Pick: A Star Is Born
My Thoughts: If there’s one thing the HFPA seems to love, it’s star power. This film had that and more. It was a fresh but faithful take on a beloved Hollywood story, the debut of an actor-turned-director (another thing the Globes often honor), and a showcase for one of the biggest stars of the moment: Lady Gaga. A Star Is Born is a film with the kind of mass appeal and genuine artistry to take home the night’s biggest film award, and my intense devotion to its sincere storytelling means I’ll be crying happy tears on my couch if this prediction comes true.

Best Motion Picture: Musical or Comedy
My Pick: Green Book
My Thoughts: This category seems a bit more wide open than its dramatic counterpart. Although both Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman pose a bit of a threat to A Star Is Born, that’s remained the frontrunner, while the comedy/musical category has many options that all make strong cases for consideration. Despite my deep love for Mary Poppins Returns, I think Green Book has the kind of broad support and critical acclaim that will give it the edge. The Favourite is another strong possibility, but I think Green Book is the kind of feel-good, crowd-pleasing “comedy” that voters will want to reward at the Globes.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2018 Emmy Awards

 

62nd Primetime Emmy Awards - Audience

(Photo by Paul Drinkwater/NBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images)

The Emmys and I have had a volatile relationship ever since the days when Jennifer Garner (and perhaps even more egregiously, Victor Garber) were passed over for their  work on Alias. There are times when surprise nominations and wins bring me endless joy—like Kate McKinnnon’s first win. But there are also times when shocking snubs send me into fits of rage—like the fact that Amy Poehler never won an Emmy for playing Leslie Knope and Steve Carell never won for playing Michael Scott.

Those last two names remind that an Emmy isn’t everything. Legendary performances and beloved television shows don’t need to have their time in the Emmy spotlight to mean something to both an individual and the TV-loving community at large.

But it’s still nice to see your favorites win.

With that being said, this has been a challenging prediction post to make. I’m too invested in some of the shows—especially one drama series in particular—to be completely objective (or even logical) in my choices. But the good thing is, I don’t really have to be. (That’s when not doing this for a living has its perks.) This year, I’m picking with my heart, so while you probably shouldn’t use my ballot as a key to winning your office pool, you should know that it’s a close look into where my heart will be on Monday night. (Side note: I HATE having the Emmys on a Monday night. It’s THE WORST.) And if you want an even closer look, you can follow along with all the evening’s fun—and probably emotional devastation and angry ranting—on Twitter, where I’ll be live tweeting starting around 6 p.m. EST!

Without further ado, let’s get to the picks!

Outstanding Drama Series
My Pick: The Americans
My Thoughts: It’s my last chance to root for what I think is the most nuanced and unexpectedly powerful drama on television, so you better believe I’m going to pick it to win in pretty much every category its nominated for. But this is more than just a choice from the heart; I think it has a good—albeit, not great—chance to get some of that last-season love the Emmys sometimes like to dish out. While this category is probably a two-horse race between The Handmaid’s Tale and Game of Thrones, I want to believe there’s some goodwill in Emmy voters’ hearts for this moving portrait of marriage and parenthood wrapped up in a spy story that’s completely compelling in its own right. The show’s final season featured some of its most breathtaking performances and heart-stopping moments, and it was capped off by one of the most talked-about finales of the year. I hope the well-deserved praise for that brilliant episode  leads to the Emmy glory this show has always deserved.

Outstanding Comedy Series
My Pick: Atlanta
My Thoughts: Although I don’t watch Atlanta (There’s too much good TV to watch!), I’m no dummy; I know it’s something special. I also know its second season was highly praised, and I’m always a supporter of Donald Glover winning all the awards. While I’d love to see GLOW take home this award (and am already hoping for it to win next year for its stellar second season), I won’t be completely devastated to see such an inventive show get the recognition it deserves.

Outstanding Limited Series
My Pick: The Assassination of Gianni Versace
My Thoughts: This is the only Limited Series pick I’m going to make this year because I’m woefully uneducated about the nominees, and that includes this iteration of American Crime Story. Although I only watched the first few episodes because it was too disturbing and violent for my taste, I knew it was a shoe-in for this award and pretty much any others it was going to be nominated for (including the career-redefining work Darren Criss did in a role that literally gave me nightmares). I can appreciate art without having the stomach to consume large amounts of it, and The Assassination of Gianni Versace was a true work of art.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2018 Oscars

Oscars

Source: MentalFloss.com

Oscar Sunday has been a special day for me since I was a little kid. I’ve always loved movies, so the Oscars and all their pomp and circumstance and glamour have always drawn me to my couch to marvel at the gorgeous gowns, cheer when my favorites finally win, and loudly complain when other favorites are snubbed.

Although the Oscars can sometimes be frustrating to watch and we all know the best movies and performances don’t always win, my desire to watch them from an educated perspective taught me so much about film—especially in my teens. I used to try to watch every Best Picture nominee in a given year (which was much easier when there were only five), and that broadened my understanding of what movies could be and how they could make me feel by introducing me to movies I might never have seen without Oscar nominations behind them. (I’m looking at you, Brokeback Mountain, The Social Network, Slumdog Millionaire, and Revolutionary Road.)

In recent years, I was lucky to see one or maybe two Oscar contenders, but this year, I made a point of seeing as many as I could, and in the process, I fell back in love with movies and how much life-affirming beauty can be found in the hours spent in a darkened theater. So I wanted to come back to these predictions after four years off because I have a stronger sense of the year’s biggest contenders than I’ve had in a while. I hope you’ll share your own predictions with me in the comments and join me on Twitter for all the fun starting with my annual live tweeting of the red carpet at 6 p.m. EST!

Without further ado, let the predicting begin!

Picture
My Pick: The Shape of Water
My Thoughts: This is such a wide-open category this year, but I can’t pick against the magic of this movie. Some movies are simply works of art—like paintings come to life—and The Shape of Water is one of those movies. I can’t stop thinking about this movie as a whole, but what’s so special and unique about it is the way certain shots have gotten under my skin and become unforgettable to me not because they were disturbing or shocking or upsetting, but because they were so beautiful. Everything about this film was beautiful—its score, its cinematography, its color palette, its performances (I will sing the praises of Richard Jenkins in this film until the end of time.), and its message that love (even the strangest, most unexpected kind of love) can conquer all. This is a movie about a group of outcasts and outsiders coming together, and it’s also a movie that speaks to the power of cinema to inspire, which we all know Oscar voters love. It’s a love letter to movies, and it’s a creative love story unlike anything I’ve ever seen before. While I wouldn’t mind seeing Lady Bird or Get Out pull a shocking upset, I think this will be a case where the film with the most nominations takes home the big prize.

Director
My Pick: Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
My Thoughts: The creativity, care, and unique perspective del Toro brought to this film took my breath away. Every part of the film was touched by del Toro’s ability to balance the gritty and dark realities of life in the real world with the magic of the movies. This is his masterpiece, and I hope it earns this visionary a well-deserved Oscar.

Actress
My Pick: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
My Thoughts: Although I feel like you can never count out Meryl Streep and Saoirse Ronan gave my favorite performance among the nominees this year, McDormand’s fierce and fearless work makes her one of the night’s few sure bets. Her ability to use seething silences to portray the overwhelming anger of grief in a way few actors are brave enough to touch made Three Billboards work, and I can’t see anyone else upsetting what’s essentially been a one-horse race since early on in awards season.

Actor
My Pick: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
My Thoughts: The Oscars love a good makeover, and no one changed their appearance for a role more than Oldman did this year. Although I didn’t see Darkest Hour so I can’t offer a truly informed opinion, I think picking with crowd is the way to go on this one. However, part of me is really hoping for a Daniel Kaluuya upset.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2017 Emmy Awards

62nd Primetime Emmy Awards - Audience

(Photo by Paul Drinkwater/NBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images)

My relationship with the Emmys has always been complicated. I can still feel the bitter sting of teenage years spent waiting for the day Jennifer Garner and Victor Garber would be recognized for their work on Alias, the bitter sting that happened all over again every year Amy Poehler was passed over for Parks and Recreation. Every year, I rant about the unfair snubs (RITA MORENO! THE AMERICANS FOR BEST DRAMA!), and every year I find myself praying for a rule change that says you can only win one time for playing a role.

With all that being said, I can also still feel the joy of young adult years spent watching wins for LOST and Grey’s Anatomy, joy that was echoed last year when The People vs. O.J. Simpson took home so many well-deserved awards. And every year, my anger at certain snubs is balanced out by joy over some pleasant surprises. (I literally leapt off my couch in excitement last year when Kate McKinnon won.)

No matter how you feel about who ultimately ends up with nominations and wins, the Emmys are a night for those of us long-time TV nerds to enjoy getting to see our favorites in the spotlight. It’s a celebration of a medium that has given me so much over the years, and I’ll always be thankful for times when I get to reflect on just how much good TV there is in the world right now.

I love award shows. I love eating pizza on my couch in sweatpants while I look at gorgeous celebrities in designer gowns and tuxedos. I love seeing what clips they choose for nominees and yelling about what I would have chosen instead. And I love making my predictions and sharing them with you.

Below you’ll find my picks for most of the night’s major categories, and I’d love to read yours if you want to share them in the comments! And if you want to get in on the Emmy fun on Twitter, I’ll be live-tweeting the entire evening (including the red carpet) starting at 6 p.m. EST!

Outstanding Drama Series
My Pick: The Handmaid’s Tale
My Thoughts: This is a category that could go in so many different directions depending on what Emmy voters want to honor—buzz (Stranger Things), popularity and bringing strong storytelling back to network TV (This Is Us), complexity (Westworld), beautiful period pieces (The Crown), or unflinching political statements (The Handmaid’s Tale). I might want to change my pick based on how the rest of the evening goes, but I think the timeliness and fearlessness of The Handmaid’s Tale will push it over the edge. And not only is it an important piece of drama in our current political climate, it’s a great television show—plain and simple. Its performances are incredible, its cinematography and direction make every episode feel like a movie, and it did a phenomenal job of adapting a beloved piece of literature into a bold and brilliant drama.

Outstanding Comedy Series
My Pick: Atlanta
My Thoughts: Although I haven’t had enough time to watch Atlanta yet, I can’t see Emmy voters looking past its fresh point of view and smart execution. Everything I’ve heard about the show makes me think it’s a breath of fresh air, and I’m hopeful that Emmy voters will give new voices the praise they’re rightly due this year. Out of the shows I’ve seen, I would be thrilled if black-ish won, but I won’t be upset at all if (and most likely when) Atlanta takes home the victory instead.

Outstanding Limited Series
My Pick: Big Little Lies
My Thoughts: Big Little Lies was the best thing I’ve watched on television so far this year. Every single episode left me breathless, and it struck the perfect balance between making me laugh, making me sob, and making me so physically upset and anxious that I could feel my entire body shaking during certain scenes. The cast was filled with A-list stars bringing their A-games. And what struck me the most while I was watching it—and what I hope Emmy voters recognize—is that this told a story about women as we really are, and that’s not something shown on television very often. These women were trauma survivors and moms and no-nonsense bosses in the boardroom (sometimes all three at one time), women with careers and women who gave up their careers, women who are fierce and flawed and who love and hate deeply. No two women on this show are the same—there are no tropes, stereotypes, or one-note characters among them. Instead, this show aims to go beyond the surface to reveal that every woman has her own story. Big Little Lies is a show about the power of women—women who might be completely different but who will fight like hell for each other when they sense a threat to one of their own—and that focus on telling the truth about the strength of women and the complexity of our relationships with each other made for the most powerful and poignant story told on television in 2017.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2016 Emmy Awards

62nd Primetime Emmy Awards - Audience

(Photo by Paul Drinkwater/NBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images)

The 2016 Emmy Awards are upon us, and this is the first year in my Emmy-viewing history (which extends back to my early high school years when I first felt the bitter sting of disappointment every time Alias didn’t win) that I have a rooting interest in nearly every category. Although I’m still frustrated by some of this year’s snubs and the overall lack of pleasant surprises among the nominees, it’s nice to see some of my favorites from the world of television with a fighting chance to take home an award this year.

The Emmys give us a chance to celebrate television while eating pizza on our couch and freaking out every time our favorites are shown in the audience (or is that just me?), so no matter how annoyed I get about nominees and winners, I watch them with rabid enthusiasm every year. And you can join in the rabidly enthusiastic fun on Twitter, where I’ll start live-tweeting with my reactions to the red carpet coverage at 6 p.m. EST!

Without further ado, here are my picks for who I think will win each of the night’s major awards (except Outstanding Television Movie because I didn’t see any of the nominees) and who I wish would win. Don’t forget to share your hopes and your predictions for this year’s Emmys in the comments!

Outstanding Drama Series
My Pick and My Wish: The Americans
My Thoughts: I’ll be honest with all of you; I really think Game of Thrones has the best chance to win this award. But I can’t pick against what I consider the best show on television when it has finally found itself in this position. And if Emmy voters want to go in a different direction since Game of Thrones won last year (which isn’t likely, but it could happen), then I think The Americans is in a prime position to move to the front of the pack. This season was universally loved by critics and fans; it has more buzz around it than ever before; and it nicely fills the “20th century American dramatic period piece” void left behind by Mad Men. The Americans is simply a brilliant piece of television and has been for years, and it’s time Emmy voters took notice.

Outstanding Comedy Series
My Pick: Veep
My Wish: black-ish
My Thoughts: I don’t think any show is going to upend Veep’s reign of dominance, especially considering the plethora of other awards it’s nominated for. However, I’d love to see black-ish shock everyone with a win in this category. It had a stellar sophomore season that tackled important issues with honesty and heartfelt emotion (“Hope” was one of the most profound episodes of television in all of 2016.) while never losing its sharp sense of humor.

Outstanding Limited Series
My Pick and My Wish: The People v. O.J. Simpson
My Thoughts: The People v. O.J. Simpson could have gone wrong in so many ways, but somehow it ended up being a true triumph. It managed to take an event analyzed for more than a decade by legal experts and everyday Americans and open our eyes to the humanity that got lost in the media circus. That focus on the personal stories of the people on both sides of the trial allowed its stellar cast to shine, and its strong ensemble work and surprisingly deep and nuanced tone is what will help it emerge victorious.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2015 Emmy Awards

(Photo by Paul Drinkwater/NBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images)

(Photo by Paul Drinkwater/NBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images)

It’s time once again for the Emmy Awards! While I don’t always agree with the nominations, I do always have fun watching the show. It’s a great way to celebrate some of the best achievements in television, and this was a fantastic year to celebrate.

Watching the show is even more fun when you can make your own picks and play along! So here are my choices for who I think will win each award and who I hope will win, too. Don’t forget to share your picks in the comments, and I’ll be live tweeting the evening’s festivities (from my comfy couch, of course) over at the NGN Twitter account starting around 6 p.m.

Outstanding Drama Series
My Pick: Mad Men
My Wish: Orange Is the New Black
My Thoughts: This feels like one of the most open categories of the night in terms of which show will win, but my gut says Mad Men’s impact on the television landscape will be honored with an Emmy for its final season. (My gut really says this award belongs to The Americans, but Emmy voters don’t care about my gut, apparently.) However, I would love to see the rise of complex, diverse female characters on television highlighted with an Orange Is the New Black win.

Outstanding Comedy Series:
My Pick and My Wish: Parks and Recreation
My Thoughts: I can’t pick against Parks and Rec when it’s my last chance to pick it…I just can’t. I wrote an entire post earlier this week about why this show is so deserving of this award, so I’ll sum up those feelings by saying sometimes nice people finish first, and I want to see that happen on Sunday night.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2014 Emmy Awards

How many Emmys will the final season of Breaking Bad win?

How many Emmys will the final season of Breaking Bad win?

For as frustrated as I was with the 2014 Emmy nominations when they were announced, I’m still excited to see TV’s best (with some notable exceptions) celebrated on Monday night. Although I don’t watch a lot of what’s considered “critically acclaimed” television, I’m still going to attempt to predict the show’s big winners. I’m also going to offer my thoughts on who I wish would win in these categories, too.

I’m not including the miniseries or TV movie categories because I haven’t seen any of those nominees. However, if you have thoughts on who will/should win those categories (as well as any others I’ve left out), let me know in the comments. And I’ll be live tweeting the evening’s festivities (including any red carpet coverage I can watch after work—why are these awards on a Monday?) over on the NGN Twitter account.

Outstanding Drama Series
My Pick and My Wish: Breaking Bad
My Thoughts: I will preface this by saying I think Breaking Bad and True Detective are going to split the series and actor categories. So if Bryan Cranston wins for acting, I think True Detective will take home this award. Ultimately, it’s a very close race, but I think Breaking Bad’s final season will be recognized to honor the show’s part in TV history. Years from now, Breaking Bad will be known as one of the pillars of this new Golden Age of television, so I think the Emmys will take advantage of having one last chance to honor it.

Outstanding Comedy Series
My Pick and My Wish: Orange Is the New Black
My Thoughts: I know the Emmys are often afraid to break away from the familiar, but the impact Orange Is the New Black has had on the television landscape shouldn’t be denied. I think this will be Emmy voters’ chance to recognize Netflix as a platform since I don’t think House of Cards will take home any awards this year. Not only would this be a way for the Emmys to make a statement that they’re not stuck in the past, it would be a way to recognize a show that’s unlike anything else on television.

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Nerdy Girl Predicts: The 2014 Oscars

Gravity will probably walk away with the most Oscars tonight, but I don't think Best Picture will be one of them.

Gravity will probably walk away with the most Oscars tonight, but I don’t think Best Picture will be one of them.

After months spent sitting in darkened theaters and on comfortable couches watching movie after movie, the film fanatics’ Super Bowl has arrived—it’s Oscar Sunday! More than any Oscars in recent memory, this one has a number of important categories that might still be too close for anyone to call ahead of time. From a Best Supporting Actress race for the ages to a Best Picture group without a clear favorite, this year’s ceremony is more difficult to predict than usual, but I think that’s going to make it even more fun to watch.

Below are my picks for all 24 categories, with analysis (and my sentimental favorites) for each of tonight’s major awards. Let me know in the comments what your ballot looks like, and don’t forget to join me on Twitter, where I’ll be dissecting everything from the red carpet fashions and Ellen’s sure-to-be-fabulous hosting skills to the night’s big winners and losers.

Picture
My Pick: 12 Years a Slave
My Wish: Her
My Thoughts: No movie I saw in this past year made me think or feel as deeply as Her, but I know it doesn’t stand a chance against the big boys in this category, despite its originality. In the three-horse race between 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, and American Hustle, I expect the Academy to choose the emotionally potent historical drama (a favorite genre of theirs over the years), and the choice is not without merit—12 Years a Slave was fearless and filled with strong performances.

Actor
My Pick: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
My Wish: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
My Thoughts: As much as I would love to see DiCaprio (my favorite actor since the age of 10) finally take home an Oscar for what many are calling his best work to date, I don’t think anyone is taking this Oscar from McConaughey. His physical transformation was astounding, but it was the emotional commitment he gave to this role that floored me. Also, his trademark charm helped make Dallas Buyers Club not just an emotionally compelling film but also a surprisingly warm and entertaining one.

Actress
My Pick: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
My Wish: Amy Adams (American Hustle)
My Thoughts: I still haven’t seen Blue Jasmine, but I’m not sure there’s been a performance more universally accepted as the best in its category this year. This award has been Blanchett’s since the film was released. As much as I’d love for Adams to finally get Oscar recognition in a year in which she served as the sexy but surprisingly vulnerable heart and soul of my favorite ensemble of the year (and turned in another excellent performance in Her), I’m sad to say it’s just not going to happen this year.

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