The Golden Globes are my favorite award show. Yes, I love seeing television get its day in the sun with the Emmys; I love the way the SAG Awards honor my favorite thing about most films (the performances); and you can’t beat the Oscars when it comes to glamour and style. But the Golden Globes are different—the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) brings the worlds of television and film together, and it does so with a genuine sense of humor.
There’s something uniquely fun about the Golden Globes. The celebrities are a little more relaxed. The nominees (and winners) are often a little more random and harder to predict than other award shows. And you can’t mention “fun” and “Golden Globes” in the same sentence without mentioning this year’s returning pair of hilarious hosts: Amy Poehler and Tina Fey.
I’m so excited to watch one of my favorite times of year—award season—kick off tonight. I’m excited to see all of the gorgeous (and maybe not-so-gorgeous) looks on the red carpet. I’m excited to see what smart and memorable material Poehler and Fey have in store for us this year. I’m excited to watch many of my favorites from this year in film and television have their names read along with all the other great nominees. And I’m excited to celebrate film and television, two mediums that I love differently but equally and continue to love more each year.
Before tonight’s ceremony, (which begins at 8 p.m. on NBC), I wanted to share my predictions, which should always be taken with a grain of salt because I often pick with my heart instead of my head when it comes to these things. Let me know in the comments who you think will win, who you think should win, and who you’re most excited to see tonight. And join me on Twitter around 6 p.m. when I kick off my annual Golden Globes live-tweeting coverage!
FILM NOMINEES
Best Motion Picture: Drama
12 Years A Slave
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Philomena
Rush
My Pick: 12 Years A Slave. While Gravity’s technical brilliance is hard to ignore, I think the emotional impact and sheer nerve of 12 Years A Slave is even harder to overlook.
Best Motion Picture: Comedy Or Musical
American Hustle
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
My Pick: American Hustle. With a cast full of talented stars used to their fullest potential in a smart, entertaining period piece (which feels weird to say since the 1970s weren’t that long ago), I think American Hustle is the kind of film the HFPA often gravitates towards.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture: Drama
Chiwetel Ejifor (12 Years A Slave)
Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Robert Redford (All is Lost)
My Pick: Chiwetel Ejifor. While Redford could take home the award because of his pedigree (and brilliant work), I still think Ejifor’s work as the heart and soul of the year’s most brutally emotional film will take precedence over the HFPA’s usual bias towards bigger names.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture: Drama
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)
Kate Winslet (Labor Day)
My Pick: Cate Blanchett. While I would give this award to Bullock, I have heard nothing but ecstatic raves for Blanchett’s work, and she seems like a lock in this category filled with great actresses who gave great performances this year.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture: Comedy Or Musical
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)
Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
My Pick: Amy Adams. Meryl or Amy? In the battle of Hollywood royalty versus the next generation of great actresses, I think Adams is going to come out on top for her standout performance in an ensemble filled with today’s most compelling actors. It’s about time her chameleon-like ability to play nearly every kind of role was rewarded.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture: Comedy Or Musical
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Joaquin Phoenix (Her)
My Pick: Leonardo DiCaprio. As a DiCaprio fangirl since the age of 9, nothing makes me happier than the critical acclaim his work in Wolf of Wall Street is getting, and if anyone deserves some award-season love after so many years of being overlooked, it’s him.
Best Performance by an Actress In A Supporting Role
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years A Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
My Pick: Jennifer Lawrence. The HFPA loves great young actresses, and they love celebrities. Lawrence is one of the most popular celebrities in Hollywood right now, but, even more importantly, she’s also incredibly talented and versatile, which is proven by her scene-stealing work as American Hustle’s ultimate desperate housewife.
Best Performance by an Actor In A Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Daniel Bruhl (Rush)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years A Slave)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
My Pick: Jared Leto. In a year where most awards seem up for grabs, Leto is as close to a lock as you’re going to find for his transformative, heartbreaking work in Dallas Buyers Club.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
Steve McQueen (12 Years A Slave)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
My Pick: Alfonso Cuarón. Gravity’s revolutionary technical aspects make Cuarón a likely and worthy winner in this category. He could win this award on the strength of the film’s opening sequence alone.
Best Screenplay
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
My Pick: Her. A love story based on the connection between a man and an operating system—it sounds crazy in theory, but Her has become one of the movies everyone is talking about and responding to an emotional level. What could have been a ridiculous story is instead being called a heartfelt look at our human need to connect, and that surprising depth comes first and foremost from its very unique screenplay.
Best Animated Feature Film
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Frozen
My Pick: Frozen. Is there any other reasonable choice to make here?
Best Foreign Language Film
Blue is the Warmest Color
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Past
The Wind Rises
My Pick: Blue is the Warmest Color. This is a category I usually know nothing about, so when I’ve heard of a nominee—like Blue is the Warmest Color—I tend to pick that one. If you’ve seen any of these, I’d love to know your thoughts on them in the comments. (I actually really like foreign films; I just don’t live in a place where they’re shown very often—if at all.)
Best Original Score
All is Lost
The Book Thief
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Gravity
12 Years A Slave
My Pick: Gravity. I don’t normally notice a film’s score unless it’s excellent, and I am still thinking about Gravity’s haunting score months after I saw the film.
Best Original Song
“Atlas” (The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)
“Let It Go” (Frozen)
“Ordinary Love” (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
“Please Mr. Kennedy” (Inside Llewyn Davis)
“Sweeter Than Fiction” (One Chance)
My Pick: “Let It Go.” It’s the best Disney song in years, and it was sung by one of modern musical theater’s greatest voices. That seems to be a recipe for success, if you ask me. (Although Bono’s “Ordinary Love” could prove to be too much star power for the HFPA to resist.)
TELEVISION NOMINEES
Best Television Series: Drama
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
The Good Wife
House of Cards
Masters of Sex
My Pick: Breaking Bad. This was the year of Breaking Bad, and there’s no way the final season of a show already being called one of TV’s greatest won’t be rewarded with nearly every major award, including the Golden Globe.
Best Television Series: Comedy Or Musical
The Big Bang Theory
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Girls
Modern Family
Parks and Rec
My Pick: Brooklyn Nine-Nine. The HFPA likes to recognize strong freshman seasons, and Brooklyn Nine-Nine is having one heck of a freshman season in terms of the quality of its episodes and the confidence it already has in the kind of show it wants to be. My heart wants to choose Parks and Recreation, but I have a feeling this is going to be a case of “It’s an honor to be nominated” for my favorite TV comedy.
Best Performance by an Actor in a TV Series: Drama
Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)
Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan)
Michael Sheen (Masters of Sex)
Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
James Spader (The Blacklist)
My Pick: Kevin Spacey. Don’t count out Cranston for his work in Breaking Bad’s extraordinary final season, but I have a feeling star power and the novelty of Netflix’s original programming will push Spacey over the edge—and it doesn’t hurt that he’s also incredibly talented.
Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series: Drama
Taylor Schilling (Orange Is The New Black)
Robin Wright (House of Cards)
Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)
Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
Kerry Washington (Scandal)
My Pick: Tatiana Maslany. This is one of those “heart over head” picks. I would honestly be happy with any of the other women in this category winning, but Maslany does with multiple characters what these other actresses do with just one. My hope is that this is one of those years where the HFPA chooses to honor a rising female star, especially one who is able to emotionally ground a show that could easily become too plot-heavy to function (much like they did all those years ago when they honored Jennifer Garner for her work in Alias’s first season).
Best Performance by an Actress In A Television Series: Comedy Or Musical
Zooey Deschanel (New Girl)
Lena Dunham (Girls)
Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)
Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)
My Pick: Amy Poehler. If I make this pick enough times, it eventually has to come true, right?
Best Performance by an Actor In A Television Series: Comedy Or Musical
Jason Bateman (Arrested Development)
Don Cheadle (House of Lies)
Michael J. Fox (The Michael J. Fox Show)
Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)
Andy Samberg (Brooklyn Nine-Nine)
My Pick: Michael J. Fox. A proven star makes a triumphant return to glory—there’s no way the HFPA is letting that story go without recognition.
Best Mini-Series Or Motion Picture Made for Television
American Horror Story: Coven
Behind the Candelabra
Dancing on the Edge
Top of the Lake
White Queen
My Pick: Behind the Candelabra. Big names and a biopic—it’s two things awards committees are always attracted to wrapped up in one package.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Mini-Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television
Helena Bonham Carter (Burton and Taylor)
Rebecca Ferguson (White Queen)
Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Coven)
Helen Mirren (Phil Spector)
Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake)
My Pick: Jessica Lange. She’s the terrifying, talented glue that holds every American Horror Story installment together.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television
Matt Damon (Behind the Candelabra)
Michael Douglas (Behind the Candelabra)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (Dancing on the Edge)
Idris Elba (Luther)
Al Pacino (Phil Spector)
My Pick: Matt Damon. Ultimately, this is probably Douglas’s to lose, but I have loved Damon for too long and have admired his quietly impressive abilities as an actor too often; my heart would never forgive me for not picking him.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Jacqueline Bisset (Dancing on the Edge)
Janet McTeer (White Queen)
Hayden Panettiere (Nashville)
Monica Potter (Parenthood)
Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)
My Pick: Monica Potter. These TV Supporting Actor/Actress categories are so hard to predict because they’re so far-reaching. However, I would love to see Parenthood finally get some recognition for its beautiful, honest storytelling, and what better way to honor it than with the woman whose work took the show to new emotional depths as her character battled cancer.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Josh Charles (The Good Wife)
Rob Lowe (Behind the Candelabra)
Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)
Corey Stoll (House of Cards)
Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)
My Pick: Josh Charles. The Good Wife is having a renaissance this season, and I think that’s going to be recognized with a victory in some category at the Golden Globes. My prediction is that Charles will pull the upset over Paul for his intense, nuanced work in a season that has seen this consummate pro of an actor at his best.
Nerdy Girl Notes 
I really hope Jim Parsons and The Big Bang Theory win the comedy awards. I’d say both Jim Parsons and Bryan Cranston are two of the best in television at playing their characters.
Fact is the Golden Globes is simply the best party of the year. That’s what makes it a fun awards show. It is a bogus awards show because the elusive Hollywood Foreign Press is a joke and can swayed easier than a block of figure skating judges. That said, I love it too and I can’t not do a prediction.
MOVIES:
I think Gravity takes it because people love Alfonso Curan and for the exact reason you mention, it’s technically unlike any other movie made this year. 12 Years A Slave is this year’s most overrated film. I realize this makes me sound like a horrible person because it’s about slavery, but it is a film that felt like a homework assignment. I think the musical/comedy is a crap shoot. I’d like to see The Wolf of Wall Street win (and think it might), but I suspect this is a category where it could be any of the lot.
For acting, I agree that Chiwetel Ejifor is the reason to see 12 Years A Slave and deserves the win and being British might help him here. But I would put money on Redford because GG loves their icons and Matthew McConaughey is a dark horse in a year that he was spectacular in more than one film. Cate Blanchett is the woman to beat and I don’t think any of the worthy women in this category with her will take it. I’ve seen all but Winslet’s performance and Blanchett is glorious. It’s a deserved 1st of what I think will be many awards this season.
As for the comedy musical acting I am pulling for Amy Adams, but I think it may go to Streep because HFPA loves her 27 nominations and 8 wins in a role that chews up every scene she is in. As for the actors, I am very very torn. I will be pleased if it goes to Leo’s very deserving tour de force performance in The Wolf of Wall Street. But in my heart of hearts I am pulling for Oscar Isaac, not just because I love the Cohen Bros and the movie (and this is the only place it is going to get recognized) but because Isaac’s performance is extraordinary and career making. It was also the talk of Cannes, so the HFPA could pull this one out for Isaac.
For supporting roles Lawrence is a lock. And if she isn’t it is because Lupita Nyong’o wins and if that happens it is because 12 Years A Slave is running the table tonight. I think the supporting role is going to Fassbender especially if Lawrence is upset in her category. It’s a total crap shoot category and I think truly anyone could win it.
Alfons Cuaron wins director and if he doesn’t someone should smack the 46 members of the HFPA. I hated Gravity and think he should win. I think this is where Philomena has its moment with the outside shot of 12 Years a Slave taking it. Again, if 12 years is sweeping this is one of the momentum pick ups it takes.
I am with you on animated and foreign film. I think score is going to All is Lost, with a possibility of Gravity taking it as well. It pisses me off that the worst song in Llewyn Davis’ superb soundtrack is nominated, that said, Bono wins, every time.
TV SHOWS
Now part of the fun of the Globes is that they are never on par with any of the American awards show when it comes to TV. As such I am going with House of Cards for best drama, with Masters of Sex being an outside spoiler. The Globes has never paid attention to Breaking Bad and it won’t start now. Comedy show I think is going to Modern Family. I think they are going to be lazy and just award a show that wins awards. I agree this could go to Spacey for the reasons you said, but I actually think Spader could take this, Cranston is in the hunt but I don’t think he takes this. And besides, the most interesting category is women in a drama. I think it comes down to Maslany and Washington. I will be gravely sad if it doesn’t go to Maslany. And you will hear me carry on like a banshee on twitter if it does. As for comedies, I think that these go to Parsons and Dreyfus.
I refuse to talk about mini-series until people stop calling American Horror Story a miniseries because it’s not. That said, I concur your pics for supporting actors. I am pulling for Elizabeth Moss and Top of the Lake although I know it is going to Douglas and Candleabra. Let the party begin.
Great choices Katie! When I was in High School I used to be super into all the award shows, and the Golden Globes were always my favorite for all the reasons you mention. I dont watch many now, just because I watch a lot less TV than I did back in those days, but if there is a good host I always try to tune in. You give me Amy and Tina and its a sure thing.
I am going to go and say I think that this is going to be the year for Parks and Rec. It has to be. Last year was just so ridiculously strong. And I want to see a show as honest and uplifting as Parks and Rec get some recognition!
I am also pulling for Alfonso Cuarón as best director. I havent seen ‘gravity’ because it looks absolutely terrifying and I dont do well with suspense, but anybody that can take on such an ambitious and unique story and deliver so convincingly deserves to be rewarded. My patience with the lack of risk and originality in Hollywood these days is growing thin.
The biggest shoe in for me has to be Jennifer Lawrence. I will be shocked if she doesnt win.
I wish there was a movie I could be super excited about during this award season, but I havent seen many of the choices so I am at a loss. I was so firmly in Argo’s corner last year (I thought its ability to be suspenseful and engaging without violence was incredibility refreshing) it was great rooting for them and seeing it’s succeed at the award shows.
Really I am just hoping for some fun celebrity banter and some good jokes from Amy and Tina.