It’s been a while (five years, to be exact!) since I’ve predicted the Golden Globes around these parts, but I’m back and ready to talk about my favorite awards show! The Golden Globes are the kickoff party for awards season—one of my favorite times of the year. They’re typically more fun than your average award show, feature memorable speeches, and celebrate both TV and film—the two great loves of my life. They’re also famously full of surprises and are notoriously hard to predict, which is exciting for the fangirl in me but challenging for the perfectionist who always wants to get as many picks right as possible.
Despite how hard it is to play the Golden Globes guessing game, I couldn’t resist making my predictions public this year when I have so many horses in this race. From the last chance for one of my favorite television shows of all time to the movie I loved this year more than any other, I haven’t been this emotionally invested in the entirety of an awards show in a long time. So if you want to see the multiple emotional meltdowns that are sure to occur in real time, I’ll be live tweeting the festivities starting at 6 p.m. EST tonight.
Until then, here are my predictions for what’s sure to be another memorable and surprising Golden Globes ceremony. Don’t forget to share your picks in the comments!
Best Motion Picture: Drama
My Pick: A Star Is Born
My Thoughts: If there’s one thing the HFPA seems to love, it’s star power. This film had that and more. It was a fresh but faithful take on a beloved Hollywood story, the debut of an actor-turned-director (another thing the Globes often honor), and a showcase for one of the biggest stars of the moment: Lady Gaga. A Star Is Born is a film with the kind of mass appeal and genuine artistry to take home the night’s biggest film award, and my intense devotion to its sincere storytelling means I’ll be crying happy tears on my couch if this prediction comes true.
Best Motion Picture: Musical or Comedy
My Pick: Green Book
My Thoughts: This category seems a bit more wide open than its dramatic counterpart. Although both Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman pose a bit of a threat to A Star Is Born, that’s remained the frontrunner, while the comedy/musical category has many options that all make strong cases for consideration. Despite my deep love for Mary Poppins Returns, I think Green Book has the kind of broad support and critical acclaim that will give it the edge. The Favourite is another strong possibility, but I think Green Book is the kind of feel-good, crowd-pleasing “comedy” that voters will want to reward at the Globes.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture: Drama
My Pick: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
My Thoughts: The inclusion of Bohemian Rhapsody in the Drama Film category means the HFPA has taken notice of this film’s massive success, and I think they’ll want to acknowledge it in some way. While it’s mixed reviews make me reluctant to think it poses real threat against A Star Is Born for the night’s biggest film award, I think Rami Malek is going to best Bradley Cooper in this matchup. The near universal support for Malek’s performance makes this the perfect place to reward one of the year’s most popular films.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture: Drama
My Pick: Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
My Thoughts: This is the category I’m most emotionally invested in this year, which is probably not the best for my sanity since this is also one of the most competitive Best Actress races in a long time. It’s hard to deny the legendary Glenn Close the win, but no matter what happens later in awards season, I think Lady Gaga is almost a sure bet at the Globes. She won for American Horror Story, so I can’t imagine her being overlooked for her film debut. The honesty of her performance and the bravery it took for her to get to a place of such genuine vulnerability deserve recognition. Her performance wasn’t just stunt casting or good acting for a singer; it was the reason the whole film worked as well as it did.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture: Musical or Comedy
My Pick: Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
My Thoughts: Emily Blunt had a fantastic year, and I think a win in this category would be a great way to honor that. I think this is going to be a year that a lot of the love is spread around at the Globes, and this is a place to celebrate the joyful Marry Poppins Returns by rewarding its star, who took on a near-impossible task and made the role her own, adding layers and nuances that gave emotional depth to this film beyond the movie-musical fun of it. While it’ll be tough to beat Olivia Colman, I think this will be a case where the Globes’ love for big-name stars will be put on display, and as someone who found Blunt’s work in Marry Poppins Returns practically perfect in every way, I wouldn’t complain one bit.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture: Musical or Comedy
My Pick: Christian Bale (Vice)
My Thoughts: Continuing with my belief that these Golden Globes will spread the love around, I think Vice is bound to win something after receiving so many nominations, and perennial favorite Bale is a great bet to take home that victory. His transformative performance is the kind of thing award shows love to highlight, and despite Vice’s lukewarm critical reception, I think he’s still the one to beat in this category.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
My Pick: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
My Thoughts: This category will almost certainly come down to Regina King vs. Amy Adams. (Although don’t completely count out the women of The Favourite, even though I think they’ll sadly cancel each other out.) Because I think the HFPA is going to reward Adams on the TV side this year, I think this round will go to King, whose performance seems to be the main thing people are talking about after seeing If Beale Street Could Talk.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
My Pick: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
My Thoughts: This is the HPFA’s chance to fix the fact that they didn’t give Mahershala Ali the win in this category for Moonlight. He’s been a serious contender ever since people started talking about this film after TIFF, and I think his path to another Oscar will begin with a win at the Globes.
My Pick: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
My Thoughts: This is another one of the night’s most open and competitive categories. While I’d love to see Cooper win for having the guts to tell such a bold love story in such an intimate way, I actually think this is a race between Spike Lee and Alfonso Cuaron. Lee turned in his best and most accessible work in years, but Cuaron told a story only he could tell in a way only he could tell it, which is what a great director does. His vision and his soul were the driving force behind Roma, and I think that passion will propel voters to give him the Globe.
My Pick: The Favourite
My Thoughts: Adding even more variety to the list of winners, I think this is where the HFPA will choose to reward The Favourite for its creativity and wit. It’s a unique film, and the Screenplay category is a great place to reward films for being bold and taking chances in the stories they tell.
Best Animated Film
My Pick: Incredibles 2
My Thoughts: In the battle of the two superhero films, I think Into the Spider-Verse is peaking a little too late to have enough momentum to win at the Globes. (The Oscars might be a different story.) Instead, I think the massive success of Incredibles 2 will put it at the front of voters’ minds. It also doesn’t hurt that it was the rare sequel that lived up to the years of hype surrounding it, telling a strong story with memorable characters and that Pixar magic that’s hard for voters to resist.
Best Foreign Language Film
My Pick: Roma
My Thoughts: If there’s only one lock this year at the Globes, it’s Roma winning this award.
Best Original Score
My Pick: Black Panther
My Thoughts: This is where I think the Globes will choose to single out the incredible success and surprising beauty of Black Panther. The film’s score did a brilliant job of adding to the atmosphere of Wakanda, creating a world-building experience unlike anything in previous superhero films.
Best Original Song
My Pick: “Shallow” (A Star Is Born)
My Thoughts: After Roma winning Best Foreign Language Film, this is probably the next most obvious pick. It’s a great piece of music, it’s the centerpiece of a film that’s probably going to win Best Picture, and it’s the kind of song that stays with audiences long after they leave the theater. That’s basically going 3-for-3 in the Best Original Song sweepstakes.
Best Television Series: Drama
My Pick: The Americans
My Thoughts: Did you think I was going to pass up one last chance to champion the show I consider one of the top dramas in TV history? I don’t think this has any real chance of winning (It’s probably going to be Killing Eve or Homecoming.), but if it somehow pulls off the upset and I didn’t pick it, I’d never forgive myself. I’m hoping that the buzz around its finale is still strong enough and that it made enough Best of 2018 lists for it to be at the forefront of voters’ minds. No matter what happens, though, I’ll be happy to spend one last night hoping for any major award show to recognize what a brilliantly crafted show this was and how lucky we were to have it for as long as we did.
Best Television Series: Musical or Comedy
My Pick: The Good Place
My Thoughts: The Golden Globes like to have fresh blood in this category, and I think this seems to be the year they finally took notice of the smartest, most creative comedy on television. There are many different directions voters could take in this category, but I think they’ll choose this example of the great things still being done on network TV.
Best Performance by an Actor in a TV Series: Drama
My Pick: Matthew Rhys (The Americans)
My Thoughts: This is probably the best chance The Americans has, and I think Rhys is a good bet to follow up his big Emmy win with a Golden Globe victory. His work in the show’s finale, especially in the already famous garage scene, is particularly memorable. I said it then, and I’ll say it now: That moment was the performance of Philip Jennings’s life, and the same can be said of Rhys. It already earned him an Emmy, and I have a feeling that’s not the only award he’ll get for it.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series: Drama
My Pick: Keri Russell (The Americans)
My Thoughts: Keri Russell is my new Amy Poehler; I’ll keep picking her to win until I literally can’t anymore. I’m hoping that she’ll follow in Poehler’s footsteps and earn a Golden Globe for her work before all is said and done. Russell should have been an easy pick at any point in the show’s run; she’s playing the kind of challenging, morally ambiguous role that male actors win awards for all the time, and yet something (coughSEXISMcough) has kept her from getting the same kind of recognition those male antihero actors got. Although this award is likely going to go to either Sandra Oh (the host!) or Julia Roberts (the movie star!), I’m holding on to a small bit of hope that voters will see that the performance Russell turned in throughout the show’s final season is the kind of complex, uncompromising work that deserves any award it can be given.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series: Musical or Comedy
My Pick: Kristen Bell (The Good Place)
My Thoughts: Like the Comedy Series category, this is another place where the HFPA likes to try new things. And while Bell isn’t exactly a newcomer (nor is her show a new show), she’s still not someone who’s won in this category for this role before. The way she balances broad comedy, snark, brilliant line readings, and surprising moments of sincerity make her a fantastic choice in a category stacked with talent.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series: Musical or Comedy
My Pick: Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method)
My Thoughts: Does anyone actually watch The Kominsky Method? The surprising number of nominations for this show is proof that the Globes love their movie stars, so it seems fitting that they would give one of the biggest film legends in contention this year an award for this TV turn.
Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
My Pick: The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
My Thoughts: There are some other worthy competitors in this field that could pull an upset, but Ryan Murphy is always hard to beat. This chapter of American Crime Story was a little too violent for my personal taste, but it was a work of disturbing art from one of the most powerful creators in Hollywood. That’s a tough combination for the HFPA to overlook.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television
My Pick: Hugh Grant (A Very English Scandal)
My Thoughts: Darren Criss is a likely choice here as well, but at the Globes, if a movie star is in contention, pick the movie star. Grant’s performance earned him plenty of praise, and I think it’s going to be too tempting for the HFPA to get him onstage.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or a Motion Picture Made for Television
My Pick: Amy Adams (Sharp Objects)
My Thoughts: If Amy Adams wins the Supporting Actress film award, she might not win this one, but I think she’s one of the surest TV bets this year. She’s a beloved movie actress who turned in a brilliant performance in a popular HBO miniseries. That’s like catnip for Golden Globes voters.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
My Pick: Henry Winkler (Barry)
My Thoughts: I can’t be alone in hoping Henry Winkler wins every award imaginable after his downright adorable Emmys acceptance speech, right? He’s a veteran TV star who deserves this time in the spotlight, and I hope the HFPA gives it to him.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
My Pick: Patricia Clarkson (Sharp Objects)
My Thoughts: I love Patricia Clarkson in everything she does, and I’m so glad to see her getting so much critical acclaim for her dark turn in Sharp Objects. The women of Sharp Objects are too formidable to beat this year, and I’m not sad at all about that.